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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd