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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

But the current competition is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime underperformers ascending together. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

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