Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
